Only 64 countries have submitted updated plans to cut carbon emissions, the UN reports. All nations must submit new pledges before next month’s COP30 summit in Belém, Brazil.
Experts warn that these submissions are insufficient. Combined, the pledges will not prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5C, the threshold for extremely dangerous climate change. The UN’s review shows modest progress in curbing emissions over the next decade, but projected reductions fall far short of the levels needed to keep temperatures below this limit.
The report highlights the scale of the challenge facing world leaders. Delegates will gather in northern Brazil next week to negotiate solutions at the COP30 climate summit.
Ten years after Paris: climate targets under scrutiny
A decade after the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries face renewed pressure to slow global temperature rises. Every signatory committed to submitting a new carbon-cutting plan every five years, covering the following decade.
Despite multiple deadline extensions, only 64 countries managed to submit updated pledges this year. These nations account for roughly 30% of global emissions. The UN review also incorporates statements from China and the EU, announced at Climate Week in New York in September.
Taken together, the current plans would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by around 10% by 2035. Scientists warn that this is far from enough. To meet the 1.5C target, global greenhouse gas emissions need to drop by up to 57% by 2035, the UN reported last year.
“This report shows we are moving in the right direction but far too slowly,” said Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation and key architect of the Paris Agreement. “We must confront missing national pledges and close the persistent gap between ambition and action.”
The dangers of exceeding 1.5C
The 1.5C limit agreed in Paris marks the boundary of very dangerous warming. Scientists have long warned of its benefits. Staying under 1.5C would reduce extreme heatwaves and storms, limit damage to coral reefs, and protect human health and livelihoods.
However, 2024 marked the first full year that the global temperature temporarily surpassed 1.5C. UN leaders increasingly accept that the limit will likely be breached permanently by the early 2030s if current trends continue.
“One thing is already clear: we will not contain global warming below 1.5C in the next few years,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told delegates at the World Meteorological Organization last week. “Overshooting is now inevitable, meaning we will face periods above 1.5C, of varying intensity, in the coming years.”
Signs of hope
Despite the grim outlook, the UN report identifies some positive developments. More countries are expected to submit new plans as COP30 begins in Belém. Large carbon emitters, such as India and Indonesia, have not yet disclosed their updated pledges. Their commitments could significantly influence projections for 2035.
Some nations may also exceed their announced targets, experts say. “China often sets modest targets and then overachieves,” said Todd Stern, former US Special Envoy for Climate Change.
The UN expects global emissions to peak and decline in the coming years, marking the first sustained reduction since the Industrial Revolution. Current plans provide clear steps toward achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century, balancing greenhouse gases produced with those removed from the atmosphere.
US pledges, including those submitted under President Biden, factor into the UN’s calculations. Although former President Donald Trump signaled intentions to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, that process remains incomplete, so the UN still includes US contributions in its projections.
