A new study has found that the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), a critical component of the global climate system, can no longer be considered unlikely. The Amoc, which transports warm tropical water northward and helps regulate global climate, is at its weakest in 1,600 years due to the climate crisis.
The research, which examined climate models extending to 2300 and 2500, shows that the tipping point leading to a shutdown could be reached within the next 10 to 20 years. If carbon emissions continue to rise, 70% of model runs predicted a collapse, with intermediate emissions giving a 37% chance and even low emissions resulting in a 25% likelihood. Scientists warn that even a 10% risk is far too high given the potential consequences.
A collapse of the Amoc would disrupt tropical rainfall patterns, plunge western Europe into extreme winters and summer droughts, and add up to 50cm to sea levels. Warming Arctic temperatures slow ocean cooling, while increased rainfall and ice melt reduce water density, creating a self-reinforcing loop that accelerates the risk of shutdown.
While the exact timing of a collapse remains uncertain, researchers emphasize that rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions are essential to reduce the chances of catastrophic climate impacts. Even a significant weakening of the Amoc would have serious consequences for global climate stability.
