Scientists have observed that Arctic sea ice loss has nearly stalled since 2005, despite steadily rising global carbon emissions.
They attribute the slowdown mainly to shifting ocean currents, which temporarily reduced the flow of warm water into the Arctic.
Experts warn this pause will not last, and melting is expected to return at a stronger pace within ten years.
Decline Remains Severe
September sea ice, the lowest annual point, is still only half the size it was in 1979, satellite data shows.
Researchers highlight that this pause cannot be seen as recovery, as an ice-free Arctic summer this century remains very likely.
The loss of reflective ice further accelerates warming, exposing dark seas that absorb more sunlight and intensify global heating.
Lead author Mark England explained the slowdown offers temporary relief but does not alter the Arctic’s long-term downward trend.
Research Insights
Scientists combined over four decades of satellite records with thousands of model simulations. Results revealed pauses are natural but short-lived.
Every model predicted that after such events, ice retreat resumes more rapidly, strengthening long-term decline projections.
Data also show steady thinning. Since 2010, average October ice thickness has decreased by roughly 0.6 centimeters each year.
Past global warming “pauses” provide a parallel, where surface warming slowed briefly while Earth continued storing excess heat.
Need for Urgent Action
Researchers stress climate change is real, human-driven, and dangerous. The slowdown does not mitigate the severity of the crisis.
They warn that without careful explanation, these findings risk being misused by skeptics to undermine climate science and delay solutions.
