Shark researcher Chris Pepin-Neff calls the situation “extraordinary”: four shark bites occurred within just 48 hours. Three attacks happened along a 15-kilometre stretch of Australia’s east coast.
On 18 January, a 12-year-old boy suffered critical injuries while swimming in Sydney Harbour and later died. The following day, an 11-year-old had his surfboard bitten at Dee Why beach. Hours later, a man faced a shark attack at nearby Manly and was hospitalised in critical condition.
Then, on 20 January, a fourth surfer sustained a chest wound after a shark bit his board 300 kilometres up the coast.
“This is the closest series of shark bites I have seen in 20 years of research,” said Pepin-Neff, associate professor of public policy at the University of Sydney.
The attacks caused immediate concern locally and internationally, prompting dozens of beach closures. Calls for shark culls grew louder and more frequent. Experts warn, however, that such measures offer no long-term solution and advocate for understanding shark behaviour instead. They urge a rethink of humans’ relationship with these predators.
Environmental conditions created the perfect storm
Experts say several factors contributed to the recent attacks. Non-provoked shark bites often result from environmental changes, water attractants, or both.
The Sydney incidents, thought to involve bull sharks, followed heavy rainfall. The city recorded 127 millimetres of rain in 24 hours, its wettest January day in 38 years.
Rebecca Olive, senior research fellow at RMIT University, explained that this created ideal conditions for bull sharks. They thrive in warm, brackish water, which most other sharks avoid. “Bull sharks favour river mouths and estuaries,” she said. Freshwater runoff from the storms provided ideal conditions.
Flooded waterways likely carried nutrients and sewage into the ocean, attracting bait fish and, in turn, sharks. Pepin-Neff called it a “perfect storm”: low-salinity freshwater sparked a “biodiversity explosion,” drawing prey and predators close to shore.
Are shark attacks really increasing?
Statistics show that shark bite incidents in Australia have gradually risen over 30 years. Numbers grew from eight to ten per year in the 1990s to mid-20s annually since the 2010s.
Experts stress this does not indicate that sharks are more aggressive. Rising numbers reflect better reporting and human factors, including larger coastal populations, more water sports, and advanced wetsuits allowing longer ocean exposure.
“The total encounters are higher because more people are in the water,” Pepin-Neff said. Despite this, the rate of bites has not increased proportionally to ocean activity. Olive noted that shark incidents remain rare, and fatalities are even rarer.
Improved visibility also shapes perceptions. More drones, reporting, and media coverage make sharks seem more frequent or dangerous than they are. Broad language around “shark attacks” can distort understanding of the real risk. Pepin-Neff explained that conflating sightings, encounters, and bites exaggerates danger and triggers stronger emotional reactions than necessary.
Why culls fail to protect beachgoers
Recent attacks revived calls for shark culls, often using nets or baited drumlines near beaches. Experts strongly oppose this approach.
Olive said culls create a false sense of safety without actually protecting swimmers or surfers. Pepin-Neff stressed that research shows culls do not reduce attack risks. “It only comforts politicians and activists while leaving no one safer in the water,” they said.
The real factor is attractants in the water, not the sharks themselves. Even if all sharks in Sydney Harbour were removed, others would return as long as prey or freshwater flows remained.
How to reduce the risk of shark encounters
Olive and Pepin-Neff recommend that individuals and councils adapt to reduce encounters. Swimmers should avoid entering the water after heavy rain. Authorities could expand shark enclosures for safer swimming.
More broadly, beachgoers need a realistic view of the ocean. “Australians treat the bush with caution,” Pepin-Neff said. “We must treat the ocean the same way.”
This approach requires rethinking both our relationship with the water and with sharks. “The ocean is never completely safe, and sharks are not always dangerous,” Pepin-Neff said. “We are in their way, not on the menu.”
