Sustainability and food researchers Joseph Poore, Hannah Ritchie, and Charles Godfray examine how shrinking farmland has allowed nature to return. They explore how far this trend could continue.
Throughout the 20th century, human activity demanded more land, causing massive losses of natural forests and grasslands. Today, humans farm around half of the world’s land, growing crops or grazing animals.
However, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that global agricultural land use peaked in the early 2000s. Since then, farmland has slowly declined, replaced by grasslands, trees, and bush. Wild animals have returned to abandoned pasturelands, reclaiming areas they once dominated.
Peak agricultural land does not solve deforestation
Reaching “peak agricultural land” does not mean humanity has solved deforestation. Rising demand for beef, soy, cocoa, and palm oil continues to pressure land across South America, Southeast Asia, and Africa. In the past decade, the world lost tropical forest twice the size of Spain.
Despite these losses, farmland abandonment occurs globally. Reforestation in Europe and North America and pasture abandonment in Australia and Central Asia drive much of this recovery.
Farming efficiency frees land
Farming has become far more efficient. Improved seeds, fertilisers, pesticides, and irrigation have sharply increased yields. Depending on crop and country, productivity has doubled, tripled, or quadrupled. FAO data shows these gains have spared 1.8 billion hectares (around 35 Spains) of land since 1961.
Animal agriculture has also grown more efficient. Intensive farming, productive breeds, and optimised feeding systems have allowed countries to abandon lower-productivity lands.
Synthetic alternatives reduce land demand
Humans have replaced some land-intensive crops with synthetic substitutes. Wool and cotton face competition from synthetic fibres, tobacco from synthetic nicotine, and vanilla flavouring largely comes from labs. Lab-produced caffeine dominates the global market, and synthetic sweeteners replace sugar cane and beet. These innovations have spared over 110 million hectares of land (about two Spains).
The global wool industry exemplifies this trend. Production has fallen 50% since 1990. Grazing lands in Australia, New Zealand, and Argentina have declined 25%, allowing large areas to return to nature. The 70,000-hectare White Wells sheep farm in Australia now serves as the Charles Darwin Reserve, home to 700 plant species and 230 animals. In Argentina, the former Chacabuco sheep ranch has become a nature reserve hosting the rare rhea bird. Similar examples appear worldwide.
Synthetic solutions carry trade-offs
Synthetic alternatives relieve land pressure but create other issues, including plastic pollution and fossil fuel reliance. Solutions like biodegradable bioplastics from fungal mycelium or microbial processes are emerging. Plantation forestry also expands globally, but it supports less biodiversity than natural forests.
The decline in agricultural land is welcome but not guaranteed. Current rates of land recovery are too slow to meet global climate or biodiversity targets. To limit global temperature rise below 2°C, humanity must harness the carbon-storing potential of natural ecosystems.
Future trends in crop yields
Historical trends suggest crop yields will continue increasing. In 1961, grain production averaged just over one tonne per hectare. Today, it exceeds four tonnes per hectare. Most crops and countries still see rising yields. Fallow periods shrink, but climate change could disrupt progress. Extreme weather may hinder growth unless climate-resilient crops develop.
Global meat consumption rises, driving land demand. Yet, consumers increasingly choose pork and poultry over beef and lamb. In Europe, beef and lamb consumption dropped 20% since 2000, while pork and poultry rose 20%, sparing roughly 20 million hectares of land. Ethical concerns remain, as producing chicken requires more individual animals, but the trend likely continues.
Lab-grown and synthetic foods
Lab-grown foods may further reduce land use. Humanity already consumes lab-produced vanilla and synthetic fibres. Microbial fermentation could revolutionize oil, fat, coffee, and cocoa production. Feedstocks from waste streams or elemental sources could replace land-intensive crops.
Lab-grown animal feeds could transform pasture use. Animal feed crops occupy around 80% of farmland. Current costs remain high, but prices for lab-grown alternatives drop rapidly. These solutions may soon compete economically.
Lab-grown meat, dairy, and eggs are also progressing. In 2013, lab-grown meat cost over $1 million per kilogram. By 2030, prices could drop to $6 per kilogram, approaching beef costs. Acceptance and taste will determine adoption, potentially influenced by societal changes or awareness of pandemic risks.
New farming technologies
Greenhouses and vertical farms increase production efficiency. Dutch greenhouses produce 500 tonnes of tomatoes per hectare, compared with 30 tonnes in open fields. Vertical farming stacks crops using artificial energy sources. Currently, vertical farms remain expensive, limiting production to high-value crops. Scaling them requires low-carbon renewable energy and reduced energy costs.
Transformative potential and risks
Implementing these changes could free massive amounts of land for ecosystems, improve biodiversity, and enhance carbon storage. Innovations may also boost food security in a changing climate.
Competing land uses could challenge this progress. Urban expansion is small globally, but plantation forestry and biofuels may rise. Environmental policies must avoid trade-offs that reduce biodiversity or carbon benefits. Supporting farmers through transitions is critical. Affordability matters, or food inequalities could worsen.
No guarantees, but hope
Agricultural land could expand again if biofuel or processed food demand rises, or if environmental policies weaken. But if humanity achieves a landless agricultural transition, the 21st century could mark a turning point. Humans may leave more nature behind than previous generations did.
