A growing group of scientists warns that the world faces escalating climate dangers without proper preparation. Despite decades of evidence, nations remain unready for the irreversible damage looming from global warming.
Researchers have published a paper in the journal Nature, highlighting the absence of a comprehensive, authoritative assessment of climate risks. Such an evaluation could guide governments and citizens in understanding the urgency of cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Without it, decision-makers may underestimate threats, misallocate resources, or adopt ineffective mitigation strategies.
The urgent case for a global risk assessment
The impacts of climate change are already visible worldwide. Europe endured extreme heatwaves last year that killed thousands and triggered wildfires destroying over 380,000 hectares of Spanish land. Scientists at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine examined 854 European cities. They concluded climate change caused 68 percent of the estimated 24,400 heat-related deaths, raising temperatures by up to 3.6°C.
Every 1°C increase allows the atmosphere to hold about seven percent more moisture, intensifying rainfall. This amplified tropical storms across Asia, causing widespread devastation. Yet policymakers often respond inadequately. Rising sea levels require more investment in flood defenses, but some city areas—like parts of London or New York—may eventually need abandonment if emissions continue unchecked.
The report warns that leaders might anticipate more heat-related deaths but still be unprepared for mass casualties if conditions surpass human tolerance.
Scientists stress opportunity for action
Professor Rowan Sutton, senior commentary author and director of the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre, emphasizes humanity can still avoid the worst outcomes. He says a global assessment of avoidable climate risks could help leaders and citizens understand the stakes and seize the opportunity to build a safer, more livable future.
“This assessment would make clear what is at risk and motivate action before it’s too late,” Sutton notes.
What a global risk assessment could achieve
A full global assessment would offer a clear overview of the most critical climate risks, their potential impacts, and the likelihood of catastrophic outcomes. Rather than presenting despair, it would show which disasters society can still prevent. Such clarity would help governments plan mitigation strategies and demonstrate how human action can shape outcomes.
Developing this assessment will require overcoming major challenges. Sutton explains the complexity of climate science, diverse regional impacts, the need for multiple areas of expertise, and the rapidly evolving risks all pose obstacles. Political, economic, and data-sharing barriers have also slowed the creation of a globally accepted, regularly updated framework.
The time for action is now
Professor Peter Scott, the paper’s co-author and climate scientist at the Met Office and the University of Exeter, stresses the urgency. He warns the world stands at a crossroads in emission reduction efforts. Bridging the global risk assessment gap is a priority.
Scott adds, “An internationally mandated, transparent assessment of avoidable climate risks is crucial to show the scale of the threats and highlight the opportunities to prevent the worst-case scenarios. The time to act is now.”
